📈 Uncle Sam's Silicon Stake

Good Morning…

When Washington starts collecting royalties on private tech deals, you know the rules of global commerce have fundamentally shifted. Our main story examines how Nvidia and AMD's unprecedented 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. government—the first of its kind in export license history—reveals a new playbook for managing strategic competition with China.

🔎 Market Trends → Nasdaq posts record closing high with tech gains, rate cut optimism; Futures edge up as Fed shake-up stokes dovish bets

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → Crypto in 401ks: Trump’s Executive Order and Its Impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, August 11, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open 

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Futures Edge Higher as Investors Brace for Inflation Test

Dow futures rose +56 points (+0.1%) Sunday night. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both added +0.1%, keeping indexes within a hair of record highs.

The Big Picture:

Wall Street is tiptoeing into a make-or-break week with the CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Thursday) set to dictate whether the rally keeps climbing or cools off.

Last week’s Nasdaq record close and near-breakthrough for the S&P 500 were powered by a surprise assist from Apple (AAPL) — a laggard finally flexing some muscle. But valuations are stretched, macro clouds are thickening, and tariff ripple effects remain a risk.

Oil held steady near $81/barrel, suggesting energy markets are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting (Aug. 21–23). The tone there will likely set the September rate path.

Market Movers:

• Apple (AAPL): Strong bounce last week revived tech sentiment, signaling big-cap resilience.

• Nvidia (NVDA) & AMD (AMD): Agreed to pay the U.S. 15% of China chip sales for export licenses on AI chips. Investors see it as a cost of doing business — but it also secures access to a massive market.

• Sweetgreen (SG): Tumbled -25% after slashing guidance, underscoring ongoing consumer-spending pressure.

What They’re Saying:

“We may get a little bit of sideways action… which is not a bad thing.” — Jay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Rumble, Barrick Gold, Monday.com, U.S. Cellular, Archer Aviation

• Tomorrow: H&R Block, Madison Square Garden Sports, CAVA

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

Uncle Sam Takes a Cut: Nvidia and AMD's 15% China Deal Signals New Era

Why it matters:

This unprecedented revenue-sharing arrangement between chip giants and the U.S. government creates a novel financing mechanism for tech competition while potentially unlocking $3+ billion in Chinese market access.

Zoom Out:

The semiconductor export license game just got more expensive. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) reportedly agreed to surrender 15% of their China chip revenues to Washington in exchange for H20 and MI308 export permits—the first time Uncle Sam has demanded an equity stake in private trade deals.

This isn't just regulatory theater. China represents Nvidia's largest growth opportunity outside the U.S., with analysts projecting AMD could eventually generate $3 billion quarterly from Chinese sales alone. The 15% "tax" essentially creates a sovereign wealth fund financed by AI chip exports.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media's claims about "backdoors" in Nvidia's H20 chips reveal Beijing's growing unease with semiconductor dependence, even as officials reportedly push for easier access to advanced memory chips.

Key Insights:

• The Math Works: Even after the 15% government cut, both companies likely maintain healthy margins on China sales. Nvidia's H20 chips, while less powerful than flagship H100s, still command premium pricing in a supply-constrained market.

• Precedent Alert: This revenue-sharing model could extend beyond semiconductors, potentially becoming Washington's preferred tool for managing strategic tech exports while funding domestic chip manufacturing initiatives.

• Geopolitical Hedge: The arrangement gives both companies political cover for China operations while providing the U.S. Treasury direct exposure to AI chip demand growth.

Market Pulse:

"When governments start taking equity stakes in private trade deals, you know we've entered uncharted territory," notes one semiconductor analyst familiar with the arrangement.

Bull’s Take:

Smart money recognizes this as regulatory arbitrage disguised as patriotism—both companies gain Chinese market access while Washington funds its tech competition strategy. The 15% fee is simply the cost of playing in the world's second-largest economy, and history suggests these partnerships often evolve favorably for patient shareholders.

Market Stories of Note

Ackman Bets Trump Can Solve the Fannie-Freddie Riddle:

Ackman's weekend merger pitch for Fannie and Freddie matters because it could finally unlock billions trapped since 2008's conservatorship debacle. The billionaire's decade of patience suggests this isn't bag-holding but calculated pressure—consolidating two bloated bureaucracies into one would indeed cut costs while strengthening the survivor's competitive position. Watch Trump's housing team closely, as turning regulatory gridlock into shareholder gold is precisely Ackman's specialty.

Apple's Tariff Math Works in Tim Cook's Favor:

Apple's $100 billion U.S. investment announcement matters because it essentially buys the company a tariff exemption that could save it from billions in quarterly penalties while potentially giving it a competitive edge over rivals who lack Cook's political dexterity. Bank of America's swift price target hike to $250 reflects the cold calculation that avoiding Trump's threatened 100% semiconductor tariffs could eliminate Apple's projected $1.1 billion quarterly headwind and boost gross margins toward 50%. Smart investors should recognize this as vintage Cook—part CEO, part diplomat—proving once again that in the smartphone wars, the shrewdest supply chain strategist usually wins, even when the battlefield shifts from Shenzhen to the Oval Office.

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

• Bitcoin Price Holds $118,500 as ETF Flows and Miner Reserves Build Breakout Pressure (link)

• LayerZero Foundation proposes $110 million acquisition of Stargate bridge as STG token struggles (link)

• Pump.fun unveils ‘Glass Full Foundation’ to support liquidity for ecosystem memecoins (link)